This really is my hypothesis, at an’perfect’ world at which each team would stay unchanged over fourteen days, as an example, would the points earned at the very first season offer a reliable enough measurement of performance in order to aid the football bettor to predict outcomes in the next season. The objective would be to make a profit.
One essential factor would be the current grading system of 3 points that a triumph, a point for a draw and (clearly ) no issues for weight loss. Think about a team who consistently draw, in a season they’d earn 38 points. Another team who win 50% of their games and lose the partner would earn 57 points. So, will the points system accurately speed teams abilities? . In case it will why do the teams above have such a difference in points? .fifa55
For illustration, comparing two operation figures to get a coming game from the next season will give characters such as 60 points for one team and 50 points to one different, these characters being supplied from the final league table results for its first season. It’s clear why these two figures alone would not be enough to make an accurate assessment of the subsequent game.
The possibility I’ve tried up to now is:-
Compute a typical goals scored per game for each team separately, then computing a typical distribution of goals for that team. Then join the two team’s distributions giving prices for all types of results.
Other factors such as home advantage needs contemplating thus two distributions per team (for home and off ) might need attention.
Football is definitely an inconsistent game also, some teams consistently do well against another team and so on. In each scenario the factor could require the forecast to be substituted.